Here's an interesting line of reasoning about why McCain will win

It's all in how voters see the candidates as father/mother substitutes.

"Whose Your Daddy? The Psychology of Most People's Voting".

Noteworthy:


"Erich Fromm can tell us a lot about what is behind how most people vote. He makes the point that most people are terrified of being an on-their-own, take-care-of-themselves, free, adult human being. So, we attach ourselves to surrogate family units and surrogate parents to escape from our freedom.

That translates to belonging to and becoming psychologically dependant organizations as diverse as the company for which we work and our boss, to the church we attend and its clergy, and the political party to which we belong and the parent figure who gets our vote. Identifying with the group becomes our new collective identity, and we surrender our individual identity and freedom."


"Don't expect the American people to vote on issues. They almost never do. My guess is that more people will vote on how the candidate looks than what the candidate thinks. They vote for whoever meets their personal psychological needs."


"McCain is a hero parent who will protect us from danger, and most people like him. Most Republican voters will overlook his policy positions, just like they overlooked strong and protective Rudy Giuliani's liberalness. Unless McCain screws up and shows signs of being a bad Dad, McCain will probably win. "