Friday, September 21, 2007

"Global Warming" climate modeling: Garbage in, garbage out

No, there's no problem with the science or the integrity of how these numbers were derived, is there?

Noteworthy:

"By definition, Global Mean Temperature is a calculated value, derived from representative samples of reliable data collected in a manner that allows statistical averaging so that daily and seasonal fluctuations in temperature can be, so to speak, 'averaged out'. Furthermore, sufficient geographic distribution of data sets should also be available to construct a meaningful 'average' for all latitudes and longitudes of the globe. Only after these statistical processes are completed can science 'take the temperature' of the planet to see whether it 'has a fever'. "

"Thus, 'climate change' alarmism is based on two mathematical models: 1) a statistical model that 'reconstructs' historical data using modern correlations projected backward for 100 years onto the thin support of sparse empirical data sets available then; and 2) a 'climate model' that uses this very same reconstructed historical data as key input data to project climate forward for the next 100 years. "

" I do know that Climate Model's double-extrapolation has potential to magnify any errors in the sparse underlying data, in the same way that the time-keeping error can accumulate in a watch that runs fast or slow. A systematic error was recently discovered in modern North American climate data. It will be impossible to discover such errors in the data collected long ago with more primitive instrumentation, even though such errors might well be there. And given that North American data is the central pillar for 'reconstructing' the GMT climate record, James Hansen's reluctance to correct the recent US temperature record, and dismay about having to do so, is a display of incompetence. "

"There is also a more basic reason for my skepticism concerning climate models: Although climate scientists show no reluctance to assign high accuracy to their backward projections of global climate data, and although global-warming theorists boldly predict climate disasters 100 years from now, they all seem quite reticent about predicting climate conditions one or two years hence."

Indeed.

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